NCAA Football picks for week 1 (8/31/06 - 9/4/06)

Each week, I'll select a few keys games and make some predictions. Some will show my biases for Boston College and the University of Florida, but others will be in line with who I think will win. All of my picks will incorporate the spread as of the time I post.

The season officially kicks off Thursday night with my favorite team, Boston College. In the first game of the season, they travel to Central Michigan for what I consider to be a warm-up game before their tough ACC schedule begins the following week vs. Clemson. BC has returning starters at QB and RB, and should be very competitive in the ACC this year. I'm not so sure about Central Michigan.

PICK: Obviously, I'm going with BC -13 1/2.





Aside from the BC game, there are three other games of interest this weekend. You'll notice most top 25 teams playing weaklings and wimps as tune up games. Not these three:

California vs. Tennessee

It's hard to pick against Tennessee at home, but I'm going to do it. The Volunteers had a rough time last year and will be looking to rebound, but Cal is the better team here. Knoxville is a very tough place to play for opposing teams, but I think it is going to take Tennessee a few weeks to get everything going up on old Rocky Top.

PICK: Cal +2





Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech

ND is being picked by a lot of the media as winning the national championship. GT is a decent team with returning starting QB Reggie Ball. However, I think that ND comes out swinging and beats GT by at least two touchdowns. Charlie Weiss is eager to establish the tone for the season early in what could be a national championship run.

PICK: ND - 7 1/2





Florida St vs. Miami

What better way to spend labor day than to end your three day weekend with this annual matchup of powerhouses. I think that the Hurricanes are looking for a little payback after last year's loss. Also, I don't think Miami is going to lose a home opener on National TV, especially against Florida St.

PICK: Miami -3 1/2

My 2006 - 2007 NFL predictions

I know it's a little early, but here are my predictions for each division, conference, and super bowl champ. I'll start by saying that I am a little biased, since I think my favorite team, the New England Patriots, has the ability to go all the way. As long as Bill Belichick is coaching and Tom Brady is the QB, they have a shot. Enough ranting about the Pats for now. Here are my predictions:

AFC East: Patriots (no real surprise here)

AFC North: Cincinnati Bengals - As long as his knee stays healthy, this is Carson Palmer's year.

AFC South: Indianapolis Colts - Is it me, or does Peyton Manning remind anyone else of Dan Marino? He'll break all sorts of passing records, have amazing regular seasons, and is probably a shoe in for Canton. His one flaw: He doesn't seem to have what it takes to win the big one.

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs - I'll guess we'll see if LJ is for real, or if he is a one season wonder.


NFC East: New York Giants - This is the year that Eli starts playing up to his potential. Barber, Shockey, and Burress all have big seasons.

NFC North: Detroit - What the !%#$&??? Yes, Detroit. They have lots of talent and are in a weak division. Some will say Chicago is the right pick here, but I am going out on a limb. I like the Bears defense, but their offense is questionable.

NFC South: Carolina Panthers - I really like their defense, and they have one of the best receivers in the league (no, not Keyshawn) .

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks - by default. I know they went to the Super Bowl last year, but there isn't going to be much competition in their division. The Cardinals will show signs of life, and probably finish 2nd.


AFC Champion: I think the Patriots edge out the Bengals.

NFC Champion: I know a lot of people are picking Dallas or Seattle here, but I like Carolina.

Super bowl Champion: All biases aside, I like Carolina in an upset rematch over the Patriots.

1st Overall pick in the 2007 draft: There are some good candidates for the worst team in the league. Right off the bat, I'm thinking of the Jets, Texans, 49ers, and Titans. I think both the Texans and 49ers start to climb out of their holes this year and show everyone that years of high draft choices really do pay off. My vote for the biggest loser of the year goes to the Buffalo Bills. They have some quality players like McGahee and Lee Evans, but they have too many other holes that will result in losses. They also play in a tough division, where they can count on two losses to the Patriots, two losses to Miami, and probably a split with the Jets.

Comments?

Investing - Saving for Retirement part 4 - The time factor

Time. Try to define it. Nice try, but you can't. The definition you just thought of was probably a way to measure time, but not a definition of time itself.

Time does, however, have a significant impact on your retirement strategy. Specifically, the number years you contribute to your retirement savings will make a huge difference when it's time to cash out. I read an article once (I'll try to find a link and post it) that showed an example of three different people who invested the same amount of money over different five year periods, then stopped contributing to their retirement account. For the purpose of this example, it is irrelevant whether these people have an IRA vs. a 401K. As long as the money is going into a tax deferred account, this works. The article also assumes a constant rate of return and that each of these people started to cash out at age 65.

Person 1 started to contribute at age 25 and made contributions until age 30.
Person 2 started to contribute at age 35 and made contributions until age 40.
Person 3 started to contribute at age 45 and made contributions until age 50.

After their 5 years on contributing, they never made another contribution again. The overall point of the article is to show the significant difference that person 1 has over person 2 and 3, and that the earlier you start investing, the better off you will be.

Let's plug in some numbers to illustrate the differences. Let's say each person contributes $4000 a year and the average rate of return is 7% per year. At age 65, these are the projected results:

Person 1: $281,179.35
Person 2: $142,937.32
Person 3: $72,662.09

Remember - each person contributed a total of $20,000 ($4000 a year over 5 years), and each portfolio had the same rate of return. The only difference was time, and as you can see, it was
significant. Don't waste it.

I'm glad I didn't pick Portis

In all honesty, I did not do my fantasy draft yet, but I am sure glad I didn't. Clinton Portis was very high on my list of first round draft choices. I learned my lesson a few seasons ago when I drafted Michael Vick with my second round selection. That's the season that he broke his leg and I was stuck with my backup QB the whole season.

Lesson learned: Wait until a few days before the season to do your draft.

Gambling - Blackjack basic strategy

I realized that all of my posts so far have been about investing or football, and I haven't done one on gambling. Although I would like to focus more on poker in some later posts, I will share something I found online regarding blackjack. This is a basic strategy chart. The top row shows the dealer's upcard. The leftmost column shows what you were dealt.

Some casinos will let you print this out and bring it to the table with you. I've even seen this card in the gift shop. But I've also been to casinos (me at a casino? Shocking.) where the dealer does nothing but roll his/her eyes when someone is staring at this during a hand. Your best choice is to memorize this chart. It really isn't that complicated and will seem like common sense to anyone who has ever played before. If you use this strategy on every hand, the casino has an approximate edge of less than 1%.

I know this is hard, but if you get a little bit ahead, make an attempt to walk away from the table with more money than you started with. I can't count how many times I was doing well and decided to keep playing only to lose back what I won. At that point, I usually leave the table breaking even, but furious at myself.

Fantasy Football - DRAFT

Let's keep this post simple:

Free Web poll for your Web site - freepolls.com

Investing - Saving for Retirement part 3 - What should I invest in?

OK, so you've opened a Traditional or Roth IRA. Good. After you send in your check, how should you invest it? Let's assume, for the sake of this post, you are under 40 years of age.

For someone who is busy with other things in life and has limited knowledge of investing, there are two choices that I see as the easiest and most foolproof way to invest your money. Either one works, and the first is slightly more foolproof than the second:

1. Buy a life cycle fund.

These are mutual funds that allocate your money among different funds (sort of like a fund of funds). It allocates in such a way where more money is invested in equity funds when you are younger and more money is invested in fixed income funds as you get closer to retirement. It's sort of like that 'set it and forget it' infomercial. Usually, companies offer a a selection of these funds broken out into 5 year intervals. Pick the one that's closest to the date you want to retire, and you're done. Every 5 years, the fund will re-balance to a more conservative ratio of fixed income to equity, so that when you are nearing retirement age, a bad year in the stock market won't wipe you out.

For example, let's say I will be 65 in the year 2040. One fund that I might choose is the Fidelity Freedom 2040 Fund (FFFFX). Right now, the fund is about 85% invested in equity funds and 15% invested in fixed income funds. Every five years, the fund manager will sell out of some equity funds and purchase more fixed income funds. Plus, this fund has very low fees. As you read on, you'll see why this is important.

Using this approach, you will rarely have to think about what you are investing in. Your most important task is to remember to contribute as close to the maximum you can each year.


2. Buy an index fund.

This is a close second to a life cycle fund. Although you will never beat the market, you will also never fall behind. This is a great example of 'if you can't beat 'em, join 'em'.

First of all, what is an index?

There are lots of them tracked by a number of different financial companies. It's a list of stocks that a company like S&P think represent the overall market sector. It's really meant to be a cross section of stocks that 'track' the market in different areas. There are indices for large cap stocks, mid caps, international, technology, etc.

What is an index fund?

A mutual fund company, like Vanguard, will buy all the stocks in a particular index for one of its mutual funds. You, as an investor, buy the fund which owns the stocks.

The index fund that I am suggesting you buy tracks the overall stock market. Standard & Poor's picks 500 stocks that they feel represent the overall stock market. This is what people are talking about when you hear about the S&P 500 index.

One that I might choose is the Vanguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX). In addition to being a diversified fund (made up of 500 stocks), it charges very low fees. Since you are not paying a fund manager to pick stocks, there is no reason to pay high fees. Other fund companies offer similar funds, but with double or triple the fees that Vanguard charges. Why pay more for the same product being offered elsewhere for less?

Depending on the source, I've read that anywhere from 85 - 95% of all fund managers do not beat the index each year. These are highly educated people with MBA's that have been around the stock market for years, and they still can't beat the average. This means that they are below average. In addition to less that stellar stockpicking, they also tend to charge fees that are much higher than you'd pay with an index fund. Why not go with the average that no one seems to beat on a regular basis? This way, you can't lose.

Football - Is Maurice Clarett the dumbest former athlete ever?

There is some fierce competition here - Lawrence Phillips and OJ come to mind, I'm voting Maurice Clarett as the dumbest athlete (or former athlete) ever.

Clarett got arrested in Columbus, OH again. This time, he got pulled over and the police found him wearing a bullet proof best with four loaded guns in the car. Who knows what his actual intentions were, but they could not have been good. Oh yeah, they also found an open bottle of vodka in the car.

Earlier this year, he robbed two people, at gunpoint, behind a Columbus bar.

Why is this guy still hanging around Columbus, OH? It's probably the only city in America where everyone knows who he is, since he was once a star athlete at Ohio State (located in Columbus). For the two people that he robbed, it wasn't that hard to identify the guy who did it.

For someone who showed so much promise as a freshman, someone who was the star of the BCS championship game that year, his football career after that game was one dumb decision after another. First, he winds up getting kicked off the Ohio State team after filing false police reports that $10,000 worth of stuff was stolen out of his car.

Next, he challenges the NFL on their draft eligibility rules, and ultimately loses. The following year, he is overweight and out of shape at a workout attended by NFL scouts. Despite this, the Denver Broncos decide to take a chance on him by drafting him in the third round of the 2005 draft. Continuing the trend, he shows up to Broncos camp out of shape. During training camp and the pre-season, he plays like crap, when he wasn't watching from the sidelines with a groin injury. Before the season started, Denver cut him.

As an NFL running back, if you can't run in Denver's offence, you have a serious problem. Mike Anderson is a star there. Even Quentin Griffin had a few (very brief) flashes of brilliance. And if you can believe it, Ron Dayne is playing well there. Yes, the same Ron Dayne who couldn't hit a hole for the Giants.

Maurice, congratulations. You are finally where you belong: jail.

Investing - Saving for Retirement part 2 - IRA's

If you do not have a company sponsored retirement plan (401K, 403B, Pension), saving for retirement in a traditional IRA might be right for you, since there are tax benefits. Although the limits on what you can contribute are much lower than a 401K, you really don't have too many other options.

However, a Roth IRA, in my opinion, is a much better option for everyone, including those who have a company sponsored plan. Here's are some of the differences that illustrate why:

A traditional IRA is funded with pre-tax money. A Roth IRA is funded with after tax money.

What this means:

If your company does not have a plan, you can contribute money to your traditional IRA and write the amount off on your taxes. When you get old and start taking distributions, you pay tax on the money then. The theory is that when you are no longer working, your tax bracket will be lower, and you will pay less in taxes. I think this theory is flawed, due to the growth factor, which is summarized below.

Money you contribute to a Roth IRA cannot be written off your taxes, but since you funded your account with after tax money (meaning you already paid income taxes on that money), when you withdraw the money, it's tax free.

Over time, either IRA will grow at a rate of 6%-8% a year, on average. Over the course of 30 years, when you are ready to withdraw the money, you don't pay income tax or capital gains tax. The money is yours, free and clear.

If I had to recommend an account to open, the Roth IRA is my choice. Look for a low cost provider such as Vanguard or Fidelity. These companies don't charge any account maintenance fees if your balance is above a certain amount.

All right, so you've opened an account. Now what should you invest in? Next post...

Investing - Saving for retirement

One of the dumbest things I hear from people is that they have little to no retirement savings. Most of these people (I won't name names) are under 35 years old and don' t think that they will ever be old. One of the biggest assets any college graduate with a job has is the ability and upward potential to earn money. When a person is 70 years old, for the most part, that ability greatly diminishes. Unless you were (or are) a top C level employee (CEO, CFO, COO, etc.), your ability and desire to have an active career is questionable when you reach that age. What you should be worried about is what time you tee off and how to snag a free buffet at the casino.

Here are the steps to make this all possible:

For the sake of this argument, let's assume that you are an adult with a full time job.


The first thing you should do is take advantage of your company sponsored 401K and/or Profit Sharing plan. There are a lot of companies out there that match your contributions up to a certain percentage. Not contributing is throwing away free money.

What this means: Let's say your company matches your contributions up to 5%. If you contribute 5% of your salary to your 401K, your company will also throw in 5%. This is an automatic 100% return on your investment.

Some other notes about 401K plans:

• Try to contribute as much as you can, and as early as you can. The biggest factor to saving for retirement is time. More on this in a later post.
• Don't chase 'hot' funds. An index fund or time target fund should do the trick. More on this in a later post.
• If you are a public employee, a 403B plan is similar to a 401k plan.
• Yes, it's true, but some employers do not offer any type of retirement plan. This kind of sucks, but is common with certain types of small to medium sized businesses. My next few investing posts will be on some other options like:
  
  Roth IRA's
  Regular IRA's
  Other investments

Football

Today is August 6, and the NFL preseason officially starts today. For those of us who sorely miss football, the first quarter of this game will be great. After that, all of the second and third string players start to get in the game, and all you are left with is the equivalent to a CFL game. The only exception to this is any rookies we may see tonight who are looking to impress.

Welcome

This is the first post to this blog, which will be dedicated to all the things that I love. This includes Football (both college and pro), Investing, Gambling, Cigars, and anything else I feel like writing about.