Football, Investing, Gambling: NFL Football picks for week 3 (9/24/06

Let's see if I can beat 9 wins this week. To be honest, I'd be thrilled with 9 this week considering this is the first week where four teams have a bye, so there are only 14 games instead of 16. Here goes:

New York Giants at Seattle - 3 1/2

Eli looked good last week, but only in the 4th quarter. It turns out that is all that mattered. Seattle really hasn't had a tough test yet, but I think they edge the G-men this week. It's going to be close, but the Seahawks will win it.

PICK: Seattle - 3 1/2

Carolina at Tampa Bay + 3

I normally like home dogs, and I'm not going to stray on this one. Both teams are desperate for a win. Simms has looked like crap so far this season, and Carolina just can't seem to get going on offense. Since both teams are struggling, I'll go with the one getting points.

PICK: Tampa Bay +3

Chicago at Minnesota +3

Another home dog, but this time I'm going against my rule (more like a guideline). Chicago has looked great so far and they are finally getting what they are paying for in Rex Grossman. Do I even have to mention how great the defense is playing? I know the Vikings are 2-0 so far, but I'm not so sure how they will hold up vs. a good team. Both of their wins were against struggling teams.

PICK: Chicago -3

Green Bay at Detroit -6 1/2

This is the week the Lions begin to prove me right (see one of my previous posts concerning this year's NFL predictions). The Packers are a week team that got shut out in week one and lost in the 4th quarter in week two. The Lions haven't won yet either, but they did hold the Seahawks to no touchdowns. As long as Roy Williams doesn't guarantee anything, I'm going with the Lions.

PICK: Detroit - 6 1/2

Washington at Houston + 4

Clinton Portis says he will play this week, but seeing is believing. Even if he plays, which he probably will, I'm still not sold on the health of his shoulder. Without him, the Skins will struggle as they have the first two weeks of the season. I'll go with the home dog again as the Texans will post their first win for the season.

PICK: Houston + 4

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh - 2

With Big Ben recovering from surgery and Polamalu having a few aches and pains, the Steelers didn't look too impressive vs the Jaguars last week. They return to Pittsburgh to play the Bengals, who also have some injury issues. However, the big three from Cincy look fine (Palmer, Johnson, and Johnson) as the Bengals pull off a close one.

PICK: Cincinnati + 2

Jacksonville at Indianapolis - 7

The Jags defense looked great last week on Monday night. Their offense - not so hot. Here's how it is going to play out: The Jags will shut down the Colts running game, forcing them to throw. They'll connect and score on a few, but not enough to cover the spread. Fred Taylor could have a big game.

PICK: Jacksonville + 7

New York Jets at Buffalo - 5 1/2

The Jets gave the Patriots a scare last week, and the Bills looked ok vs the Dolphins. Both teams are about evenly matched. The Jets are better at QB and WR, but the Bills have the better running game. When both teams are evenly matched, go with the points. Parity really does exist in the NFL.

PICK: New York Jets + 5 1/2

Tennessee at Miami - 10

This is a big spread for a team that looks awful last week vs the Bills. The Titans won't be winning any awards for their stellar play either, but 10 is too much to give. Maybe Young will get the ball and work some magic. Collins is done. To be fair about the spread, the Titans did get their asses kicked by San Diego, but they might keep this one close.

PICK: Tennessee + 10

Baltimore at Cleveland + 6 1/2

I can't go with the home dog here, just based on how good the Ravens are playing. They are starting to look like the Super Bowl Ravens: a dominating defense and an offense that does just enough to win. The Browns don't have too much going their way these days. Droughns is a little banged up and Frye looks overwhelmed.

PICK: Baltimore - 6 1/2

Philadelphia at San Francisco + 6

The Eagles are coming off that overtime loss vs the Giants and probably want to take out their frustrations on someone, and who better than the 49ers. Although not the doormat they were last year, with Alex Smith improving and Antonio Bryant playing well. Frank Gore is also showing why he was the starter at Miami (University) over McGahee. Philly goes to California with something to prove this week.

PICK: Philadelphia - 6

St. Louis at Arizona - 4 1/2

The Rams are struggling a little bit and Orlando Pace being injured doesn't help. I still like the weapons Arizona has on offense. This week, the Cardinals get their act together and win by more than a touchdown.

PICK: Arizona - 4 1/2

Denver at New England - 6 1/2

The Broncos look bad and Plummer looks worse. As long as they stick with him, they will lose games. He has zero touchdowns so far this season and four interceptions. This week, he is playing away against a defense that knows how to scheme. The Patriots are going to pick on him all day.

PICK: New England - 6 1/2

Atlanta at New Orleans + 3 1/2

I know this is the grand opening of the Superdome since the hurricane, and the Saints will be all fired up. In addition, they are getting points (as they should) vs a pretty impressive Atlanta squad. With all the emotion going into this one, it's hard to see the Saints flop.