Wednesday, September 27, 2006

NFL Football picks for week 4 (10/01/06 - 10/02/06)

Last week wasn't so great, but it wasn't so bad either. I had 7 wins, 5 losses, and 2 pushes. That brings my overall season record ATS (against the spread) to 25-19-2. I'm pretty happy that I'm above .500, but as always, I will strive for an undefeated week. This week is kinda tough though.

Arizona at Atlanta - 7

The rumor by ESPN that said Leinart would be starting this week turned out to be false. I feel bad for Kurt Warner. He went from MVP to someone who can't make anything happen, despite having some of the best offensive weapons to work with. Will this rumor motivate him? It probably will, but Atlanta will bounce back from a Monday night defeat in the Superdome to win this one.

PICK: Atlanta - 7


Dallas at Tennessee + 9 1/2

Even with Owens out this week (I'm not going to comment with my opinion of his 'suicide attempt'), the Cowboys should rout the Titans. Coming off a bye week, they will be ready. On the other hand, maybe this is the week Vince Young gets in the game, as Kerry Collins looks worse every time he plays. The spread is pretty big, but Dallas will overcome.

PICK: Dallas - 9 1/2


Indianapolis at New York Jets + 9

Surprisingly, the Jets haven't looked that bad so far this year. Pennington looks accurate and their receivers are playing well. All that will change this weekend. The Jets simply don't match up well vs the Colts on offense or defense. I don't think this one will even be close, as the Jet's secondary is no match for the Colts receiving corps.

PICK: Indianapolis - 9


Miami at Houston + 3 1/2

Miami is struggling, but so is Houston. Both teams are so bad, I don't even want to waste space writing about them. Go with the home team and the points.

PICK: Houston + 3 1/2


Minnesota at Buffalo -1

The Bills started off right last week, then blew it at home vs the Jets, while the Vikings kept it close with the Bears. I don't expect the Bills to lose two in a row at home, but I do think this one will be close. Both are middle of the pack type teams that are evenly matched, but the Bills are starting to play a little better.

PICK: Buffalo -1


New Orleans at Carolina - 7 1/2

The Saints looked very good at their Superdome homecoming, but can they keep the momentum going? So far, the Panthers have looked poor, but now that playmaker Steve Smith is back in the lineup, they will get inspired. A touchdown is a lot to give here, and I think this game will be close.

PICK: New Orleans + 7 1/2


San Diego at Baltimore + 2 1/2

The Chargers will be well rested coming off a bye week and the Ravens won a very close one vs a bad Cleveland team. The Ravens problem, as it's always been, is they can't score. Their D is great, but the Chargers offense will put points on the board. The team with more points wins the game. The Ravens can't score. Get it?

PICK: San Diego - 2 1/2


San Francisco at Kansas City - 7

KC also comes off a bye week well rested and ready to go. Even without Trent Green, KC can still score against an improving 49 team. But with Vernon out and Frank Gore questionable, KC will be damned if they go to 0-3 playing at home.

PICK: Kansas City - 7


Detroit at St Louis - 5 1/2

Neither team is really playing that well. The Rams won two despite how badly they played. The Lions have gotten close, but no cigar yet. This will be their week as Mike Martz returns to visit his former team with a vengeance. He will do his best to prove his critics wrong this week.

PICK: Detroit + 5 1/2


Cleveland at Oakland + 3

Two bad teams that don't deserve to be written about. Go with the home team getting points, regardless of how pathetic they've looked.

PICK: Oakland + 3


Jacksonville at Washington +3

The Jaguars looked good last week, but came up short when playing the Colts. They won't repeat this vs a so-so Redskins team. The Jags defense will not be as generous as the Texans were last week where the Skins won their first game. This week will be low scoring, with the Jags on top.

PICK: Jacksonville - 3


New England at Cincinnati - 6

No comment considering how bad the Pats looked last week. But as a lifelong fan, I have to pick them. The last time I didn't pick them in a pool, I was in middle school. Not picking them cost me a lot of money as I lost that week by one game.

PICK: New England + 6


Seattle at Chicago - 3 1/2

The Seahawks will not be the same without Shawn Alexander as Chicago will shut down their running game forcing them to pass. Seattle also proved they can give up a lot of points as they did vs the Giants last week. It will be a good game, but the Bears are the better team here.

PICK: Chicago - 3 1/2


Green Bay at Philadelphia - 11

11 is a lot to give even though the Eagles are the better team and are playing at home. Brett Favre will find a way to perform better on Monday night as the ESPN broadcasters praise him no matter what he does.

PICK: Green Bay + 11


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